Keeping out the military option from Iran nuclear case in the light of Geneva talks, can be an introduction for the same policy about Syria case. After Iran agreement Khadar Ibraham, Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations for Syria set for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian crisis and announced dates Geneva 2. Tranquility in Syria effects Lebanon directly. For sure, an important factor for peace in Syria and Lebanon is the policies of Saudi Arabia which we will explain here.
Leaders of Riyadh are encountered with two main factors which determine their behavior: deterrent and enhancing actions.
Deterrent actions: series of factors which can put Saudi Arabia in an inactive status which will lead to promoting peace in the region.
Increasing actions: series of factors that stimulate and excite the Saudi regime which will lead to security crisis in the region.
A. Normalization of Iran nuclear case
After Geneva agreement Riyadh leaders are worried about Iran’s domination in the region with USA approval. Namely, the old ally of Saudi cooperates with Saudi’s old rival. Saudi leaders believe that the Geneva agreement paves the way for Iran’s advance in nuclear technology field and Iran’s potential threats will be de facto. In such conditions, Saudi Arabia will probably take a passive strategy encountering USA which has precedent. In 2001, Abdullah the then Saudi prince, sent Bandar Bin Sultan to Washington to deliver a threatening message to George Bush, saying that now the time has come to recognize Palestinian rights and let them form their own government and end killing them, otherwise things will go very bad and Saudi will stop oil export. Afterwards Bush apparently agreed with this. But shortly after the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and intelligence agencies reported that 19 terrorists engaged in that attack which 15 of them were from Saudi Arabia. Issue that has strained relations between America and Saudi Arabia, and later expeditions of the America’s Army to the Middle East began. Saudi Arabia apposed strongly to it because it knew that the Sadam’s fall is inevitable and Iran will be strengthened. But despite threats from Saudi Arabia and estrangement, the Saudi regime has chosen the path of retreat and coordinated its policies to USA. Once again, raising the average oil production led to stable fuel prices at the gas station in the United States and did a great favor to the government of America. It could happen again as the Riyadh leaders eschew increasing actions in the area stop and re-tune their policy to United States. Namely, after Saudi protest and refusing to accept non-permanent seat of UN Security Council as a criticism to America conduct for not attacking Syria and acting against Saudi interests, maybe they take a peaceful action facing USA.
B. Iran and west closeness in the light of Iran’s nuclear case towards peace
The close relation between Iran and west is inevitable after Iran’s nuclear agreement. Saudi Arabia worries that this relation causes west especially the USA leave its old ally alone which may occur in security or other fields. In such a condition it is probable that Saudi changes its mood and opt a political approach. It’s not to the benefit of Saudi Arabia to continue the current struggle with west. Saudi Arabia worries about Iran and west friendship, because they think Iran will fill Saudi Arabia place in the oil market.
C. Internal difference
Now the two factions can be seen in the body of Saudi policy. One faction insists on supporting terrorism and is opposed to reflection in exercise in order to achieve political solutions which are managed by Bandar bin Sultan, Secretary General of the Saudi intelligence agency and Saud al-Faisal, foreign minister of the country. They argue that in the light of flaming the Arab world, Al Saud monarchy will become the most influential in the region. This faction is of high influence in the body of Saudi policy which is supported by Malek Abdullah and Malek Altujiry the social secretary of Saudi king. The position of social secretary in Saudi equals to prime minister position in other countries. Up to now the obstinacy and courage of this faction has set many countries into fire in the region and predicted to infect Saudi Arabia itself in the near future if they do not put an end to this process. But the other side believes in deliberate actions and wants to take a soft approach in dealing with the challenges. If the events happens in a way that Saudi see its national interests and sovereignty at risk, it maybe change its approach in dealing with challenges.
D. Persian Gulf states’ deviation from Riyadh policies.
Since US has put the military action against the Syria off the table and opted the political approach to solve its problem with Iran, may Arab states of Persian Gulf are trying to deviate from Saudi Arabia policies. According to Al-Manar weekly report, many Persian Gulf Arab stated has sent political delegations to Iran and Russia secretly to find a way to come out from Saudi domination. However, the multi-destination trip of Iran Foreign Minister to several Arab states of Persian Gulf is sign of Iran’s good will.
These countries have eight perceptions of the regions events. They know that the current primary is not apposing with political solutions. But Saudi Arabia is moving lonely through a dark space where finally will find itself alone and hapless. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a recent interview with the Lebanese channel OTV clearly unveiled the devastating role of Al Saud in the region crisis. He said” Saudis are trying to change the field realities in any possible way by the means of their arms and decisions until January 22th (Geneva 2 talks)”.
Meanwhile Iran’s attempt to pursue the policy of détente with Saudi regime and to re-establish a relationship with the Saudi regime has been fruitless and Saudi is traveling on its path. Secretary General of Hezbollah of Lebanon in his interview said that Iran has never severed his ties with its neighbors and attributed the problem to the other side. He added” what Iran foreign minister id doing is in accordance to Iran’s status and he is trying to ensure them that what has happened is not against Saudis. But what Iran has done was a failure because Saudi has shut the cooperation doors”.
In such a condition it is probable that Saudi adopt a more moderate approach because it sees that its old allies are not on its side.
E. Nabih Berri mediation
One of the deterrent actions is the trip of Nabih Beri, Speaker of Lebanon Parliament, to Iran to consult with Iranian officials and also his future visit to Saudi to mediate Iran Saudi disputes. Fouad Siniora, the former Lebanese prime minister after his meeting with Nabih Berri said that he will meet with Saudi officials for consultations on finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Although his power and influence is not enough to do such mediation alone, but if the means and the necessities for such mediation be prepared, this visit could be effective.
A. The loss of the Saudi role in regional equations
Saudi leaders believe that with the emergence of new conditions in the region, America will provide a new route for Iran to deepen its influence it the region and Iran will become the axe of the future west Asia and Saudi will lose its patron role in the region. It is impossible for Saudi leaders to imagine a Lebanon without the role of Al-Saud. They have been always struggling to dominate the Wahhabism thought in the region. Dispatch of many Wahhabi terrorists with different nationalities to the crisis prone area is an evidence for this claim. Considering the current situation it is possible that Saudi will take its last tricks even if his red lines are violated.
B. The possibility of losing Lebanon
It is no secret that Saudi has a great role and influence in its traditional colony Lebanon. Saudi fears that as a result of Syria failure they will lose their permanent influence in the Lebanon. In this situation it is possible that Saudi Arabia, who sees all of its properties gone with the wind, exacerbate the crisis to save the Lebanon, and if it could not achieve its goal with unconventional methods use the Lebanon as the scapegoat. Intensifying the unrest in Tripoli helps Saudi to take the control of this district from government and army in order to make there a support base for terrorists and smuggling line for terrorists and weapons. These intensifying actions can also an appropriate condition to bargain about Resistance weapon, namely by the means of Increasing the amount of weapons in the hands of organized excommunication forces which at least 15000 of them are present at the Lebanon, a transaction can be arranged to disarm Resistance.
C. The conspiracy illusion and Iran’s attack in the light of acquiring nuclear weapon
Saudi officials believe that Iran’s nuclear program is not controlled; Iran will definitely acquire atomic bomb. They imagine that after acquiring atomic bomb Iran will use it to enhance its influence it the region and cease their strategic territories. In fact Saudi fears from the inhibitory role of these weapons for Iran. However the long-standing grudge of Saudi against Iran is not limited to nuclear weapon. According to Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, “The Saudis from the outset treated with Iran as an enemy, and war that Saddam Hussein launched was with Saudi incitement and financing. The Saudis have never stopped their war plans against Iran, but since 1979 Iran revolution they have made it more complete. ”
In recent years the leaders of the Saud have told secretly Washington and Tel Aviv that the Saudi Arabia and its land is ready to be used in an attack against Iran. Less than a month later the Israeli media reported a secret agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
D. Foundation of new Arabic- Hebrew front
In the last decade Saudi Arabia has maintained his secret relationship with Israel, focusing on common issues such enmity with Hezbollah. According to Israeli sites, “Rotter.net” Last month, several Israeli officials had traveled to Saudi for inspection of the facility bases which the Israeli regime can use to attack Iran. According to Al-Manar in 2006, a confidential meeting was held between Ehud Olmert, Israeli prime minister and Bandar bin Sultan, secretary of the then Supreme National Security Council of Saudi Arabia. At this meeting, has offered Olmert’s much to finance the war against Hizbullah, if Israel does not halt the war against Hezbollah unless they overthrow the Organization.
Such relations and connections between the leaders of the two regimes have occurred many times. It is feared that at the present time Saudi use its illegitimate links and take some distructive and without prudence actions. Especially in the past few days we have witnessed in Netanyahu’s speech some form of public support from Saudi Arabia. In Hizbullah statement, the recent assassinations of Hassan Allqys one of the most influential leaders of this organization, is attributed to Israel; Meanwhile, the Beirut embassy bombing, according to evidences is attributed to affiliated groups to Saudi Arabia. So, one can conclude that there is a kind of there is a convergence between the two actions. The coordination between Riyadh and Tel Aviv can trigger crisis and be a synergy in terrorist acts, which the Lebanese arena, undoubtedly is one of the most important goals to caught Hizbullah inside the Lebanon and reduce its influence in Syria. Intensifying insecurity indide Lebanon has another result for Saudi; they can attribute this condition to the presence of Hizbullah in Syria and cause the masses to protest against Hizbullah and reduce its popularity.
E. Hope for Pakistan nuclear weapons
Nawaz Sharif, the current Prime Minister of Pakistan, in the past decade has been under the patronage of the Al Saud. In 2000 he was convicted by the court for corruption, was exiled to Saudi Arabia along with his family. Furthermore, Part of the terrorists who are fighting in Syria, are trained in Pakistan funded by Saudi Arabia. David Avtovaz, renowned journalist and author of a biography of Prince Bandar bin Sultan says” If Iran becomes a nuclear power and threaten Saudi Arabia, it is possible that Pakistan defend Saudi against Iran instead of the United States.” According to the American newspaper The Daily Post, Netanyahu quoted from Bandar bin Sultan, who last month addressed some European diplomats and said that Saudi is getting ready for giant leap to distance from his former allies the United States. Some people close to the Bandar Bin Sultan interpreted his talks and said that the Saudi efforts to establish more friendly relations with Pakistan.
It worth mentioning that the current Prime Minister of Pakistan is known for licensing Pakistan’s nuclear bomb test in 1998 in response to India’s nuclear tests.
This is one of the pendants for leaders of the House of Saud to intensify the crisis in the region, and use Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to act as a deterrent if necessary.
F. Increase in conflicts is conventional before negotiations
Usually prior to negotiations to resolve security and military crises, the parties will attempt to increase their field achievements to obtain the upper hand in negotiations. According to Khadar Ibrahim the Geneva 2 talks will be held in January 22th on Syria crisis. Since The Syrian army has already completed seizing a major part of opposition territory in the region around Damascus, Aleppo and the strategic region Al-Qalamun, Saudi Arabia is doing its best to retake the region to have the upper hand in the negotiations. So exacerbating the terrorist attacks in the Syria is predictable.
Although there is a great dispute among rebels in Syria, especially those in battle field, and there is little hope to quit conflicts after negotiations, but the diplomatic model to solve the problem can be presented in that round of talks.
Definitely Saudi elements how are engaged in creating crisis in the region will do their best to reduce Iran influence in the region by the help of their Israeli intelligence companions. Meanwhile Lebanon where Iran has many interests there is one of the most vulnerable areas for the Resistance. An area where Iran has gone so far to reduce its problem diplomatically , after the recent terrorist attacks.